Iran conflict threatens global food supply as fertiliser costs surge

Economists warn disruption to Strait of Hormuz shipping will drive food price increases in coming months, hitting poorest consumers hardest.

Rising fuel and fertiliser prices stemming from the nearly two-month-old Iran war are expected to increase global food costs in the coming months, with economists warning the poorest populations will bear the brunt of the crisis¹³.

The severity of the impact depends largely on how long disruption continues in the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about one-third of global seaborne fertiliser and one-quarter of seaborne oil¹. The waterway has been blocked to cargo vessels as Iran and the United States jostle for control³.

"Food prices will definitely rise in the coming months, making it more difficult for many people around the world to afford adequate and healthy diets," Matin Qaim, executive director of the Center for Development Research at the University of Bonn, told Al Jazeera¹. He said poor people in Africa and Asia would be hurt most because they spend a high share of their income on food¹.

The United Nations Development Programme warned on Thursday that the conflict will push more than 30 million people back into poverty³. "Even if the war would stop tomorrow, those effects, you already have them," said UNDP administrator Alexander De Croo³. The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization has also issued warnings about prolonged disruption³.

Corporations across multiple sectors reported mounting pressures during quarterly earnings announcements on Wednesday². Dulux paint maker AkzoNobel said its raw material costs would rise by something like the high teens percentage given the strait's disruption, with the full impact expected over the next two quarters². CEO Greg Poux-Guillaume said the conflict was pushing up supply costs².

Analysts agreed that the true impact has yet to be felt due to the lag between rising agricultural input costs and higher prices on shelves¹. Much of the world's fertiliser is produced in the Middle East, and disruption to fuel and fertiliser supplies has already lowered agricultural productivity and will hit crop yields later this year³.